How to Read an Economic Calendar
An economic calendar lists scheduled data releases and central bank events with their time, impact rating, forecast, previous and actual values. Markets move on the surprise: the gap between actual and forecast. Check it daily for high-impact events on the currencies you trade, set the calendar to your time zone, and avoid opening tight-stop trades just before a big release.
Reading a calendar row
| Time | Currency | Event | Impact | Actual | Forecast | Previous |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13:30 | USD | Non-Farm Payrolls | High | 95K | 180K | 160K (revised 140K) |
How to read it:
- Time: set your local time zone; many calendars default to GMT or New York.
- Forecast: the consensus of economists’ estimates. This is what’s priced in.
- Actual vs forecast: the surprise. Here jobs came in 85K below forecast: a weak number for the dollar, all else equal.
- Previous and revisions: the earlier figure was revised down too, reinforcing the weak reading.
The example values are illustrative.
Time zones and clock changes
The release time is fixed in the local time of the country publishing it. The US Employment Situation, for example, comes out at 8:30 a.m. Eastern time (BLS schedule). In UK time that’s usually 13:30, but the US and Europe change their clocks on different dates in spring and autumn, so for a week or two the gap is an hour shorter. A calendar set to your own time zone, like ours, handles this for you. Your MT4/MT5 chart times are in the broker’s server time, which is often neither yours nor New York’s, so don’t line up chart candles with release times without checking the offset.
Why the surprise matters more than the number
Prices already reflect what traders expect. When a figure arrives, the market adjusts to the difference between what it expected and what it got, and to what that implies for interest rates. That explains reactions that look odd at first:
- Good data, falling currency: the number was good but below forecast, or a previous month was revised down.
- Bad data, rising stocks: weak data can make rate cuts more likely, which supports equities.
- No move on a big miss: the market may focus on a different part of the report, such as wages inside the jobs report or core rather than headline inflation.
- A first move that reverses: early moves happen on thin liquidity; the price often settles somewhere else once the details are read.
The events to know
| Event | Who publishes it | Why it matters |
|---|---|---|
| Central bank decisions (Fed, ECB, BoE, BoJ) | Each central bank, on a published schedule | Rates drive currency values; the statement and press conference often matter more than the decision |
| Inflation (CPI, PCE) | National statistics offices | Shapes rate expectations |
| Jobs (NFP, unemployment) | US Bureau of Labor Statistics and other statistics offices | Growth and wage pressure |
| GDP | Statistics offices | Overall growth, usually less surprising |
| PMIs, retail sales | Survey providers, statistics offices | Early signals of growth |
The Federal Reserve’s FOMC has eight scheduled meetings in 2026; after October, the last is on 8–9 December. The Fed also says the minutes of each meeting are released three weeks after the decision, which can move markets a second time (Fed meeting calendar).
Spreads, slippage and margin around releases
In the seconds around a high-impact release, liquidity thins:
- Spreads widen, sometimes to several times their normal level, for a short period. See when spreads widen.
- Stops and market orders slip: they fill at the next available price, which can be well past your level.
- Margin rules can change. Exness says its actual leverage falls around important news and near the weekend close (Exness leverage). Axi can apply a Higher Margin Requirement to new positions around releases such as NFP and CPI (Axi leverage). XM Global says it keeps leverage unchanged during news (XM leverage).
A higher margin requirement on open positions lowers your margin level at the worst moment. Check what a sudden move would do with the margin level calculator and the stop-out level calculator.
Using it in practice
- Each morning, filter to high-impact events for the currencies you trade.
- Before a release, decide: close, reduce or stay flat. If you hold, size the trade so that a fill well beyond your stop is survivable (position size calculator).
- After, compare actual vs forecast and watch whether the first move holds.
- Weekly, note central bank meetings and big data days. They set the week’s risk.
Detailed tactics, and broker rules on trading around releases, are in trading NFP and high-impact news. For managing risk on leveraged accounts more generally, see risk management with high leverage.
Where to find one
- Our economic calendar, showing medium- and high-impact events in your device’s time zone
- Inside MT5, which MetaQuotes says includes a built-in calendar (MT5 guide)
- The official schedules themselves, such as the BLS release calendar and the Fed’s meeting calendar
Related
Frequently asked questions
What does the impact rating mean?
It's the calendar provider's estimate of how much a release typically moves the market, usually shown as low, medium or high. High-impact events include NFP, CPI and central bank decisions.
Why did the market fall on good data?
Because the data was less good than expected, or because the market reads it through interest rates: strong data can raise rate-hike expectations and hit stocks. Revisions to earlier figures also matter.
Does MT5 have an economic calendar?
Yes. MetaQuotes lists an economic calendar among MT5's built-in features.
Which events matter most for gold?
US data and Federal Reserve decisions, especially inflation and jobs reports, because they move the dollar and rate expectations.
When is the next US jobs report?
The Bureau of Labor Statistics' schedule lists 6 November and 4 December 2026, each at 8:30 a.m. US Eastern time.
